Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Fiorentina to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFiorentina to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Genoa vs Fiorentina preview and prediction
The match
Fiorentina travel to Luigi Ferraris in the Serie A on Saturday 10 October (14:00 WAT) to face Genoa. Genoa are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Fiorentina sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Rapid 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Fiorentina's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Napoli 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Fiorentina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.3 for Genoa and 1.8 for Fiorentina. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 30%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Fiorentina to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Genoa 1–1 Fiorentina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa30%fair 3.34 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.20
Fiorentina48%fair 2.09 · @2.25
3.10Expected goals
1.34Genoa xG
1.76Fiorentina xG
61%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Genoa 1.3 – 1.8 Fiorentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
On our numbers Genoa have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fiorentina 48%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our predicted score is Genoa 1–1 Fiorentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa vs Fiorentina (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
