Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAS Roma to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceAS Roma or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.35
AS Roma vs Atalanta preview and prediction
The match
Atalanta travel to Stadio Olimpico in the Serie A on Saturday 5 September (19:45 WAT) to face AS Roma. AS Roma are 3rd with 27 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Atalanta sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AS Roma's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Lecce 4–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Atalanta's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Bologna 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atalanta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for AS Roma and 0.9 for Atalanta. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AS Roma 63%, draw 23%, Atalanta 15%.
Safer route: AS Roma or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AS Roma to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Roma63%fair 1.60 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.60
Atalanta15%fair 6.82 · @4.50
3.00Expected goals
2.07AS Roma xG
0.93Atalanta xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: AS Roma 2.1 – 0.9 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
63%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.35
–
Form
AS Roma – last 6
WWDLWL
31 Aug
@ Lecce
4–0
W
24 Aug
vs Fiorentina
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Brighton
0–3
L
4 Aug
@ Newport County
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cardiff
1–4
L
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
WWWDWW
31 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
27 Aug
@ Hapoel Tel Aviv
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
20 Aug
vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
0–0
D
14 Aug
vs Athletic Club
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ FC Schalke 04
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Atalanta.
Our pick is AS Roma to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atalanta 15%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
