Value bet: Napoli to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Napoli vs Como preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Napoli take on Como on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Napoli are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Como sit 5th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Napoli's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Genoa 2–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Como's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Udinese 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Napoli and 0.9 for Como. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli 43%, draw 24%, Como 33%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Napoli to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Napoli 1–0 Como. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.90
Como33%fair 2.99 · @3.00
2.00Expected goals
1.09Napoli xG
0.91Como xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.1 – 0.9 Como expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.79
–
Form
Napoli – last 6
WWDWWL
22 Aug
@ Genoa
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
8 Aug
vs Celta Vigo
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Osasuna
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Carrarese
2–0
W
22 Jul
vs Arezzo
1–3
L
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Como – last 6
DDDWWW
22 Aug
@ Udinese
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Liverpool
0–0
D
12 Aug
@ Arsenal
1–1
D
31 Jul
@ Famalicao
3–2
W
24 May
@ Cremonese
4–1
W
17 May
vs Parma
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and Como.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Napoli vs Como?
On our numbers Napoli have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Como 33%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Como?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Como?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–0 Como, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs Como?
Napoli vs Como (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
