Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Lazio to win @ 2.05 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLazio to win ✓57% · @2.05
Double chanceLazio or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.16
Lazio vs Genoa preview and prediction
The match
Genoa travel to Stadio Olimpico in the Serie A on Sunday 30 August (19:45 WAT) to face Lazio. Lazio are 1st with 29 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Genoa sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lazio's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Bologna 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Genoa's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Napoli 0–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Lazio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 1.1 for Lazio and 0.4 for Genoa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 57%, draw 24%, Genoa 19%.
Safer route: Lazio or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Lazio to win at 2.05 – 57% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lazio or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lazio 1–0 Genoa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio57%fair 1.75 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.00
Genoa19%fair 5.15 · @4.00
1.50Expected goals
1.08Lazio xG
0.42Genoa xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–022%
2–013%
1–110%
0–19%
2–15%
From our goals model: Lazio 1.1 – 0.4 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
57%
1.75
2.05 ▲
Double chance
Lazio or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✓
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
24%
4.16
–
Form
Lazio – last 6
WLWWWW
24 Aug
@ Bologna
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Mantova
0–2
L
9 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–1
W
5 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
4–0
W
2 Aug
@ Ascoli
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Avellino
6–3
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Genoa – last 6
LWLLWD
22 Aug
vs Napoli
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
4 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–10
L
1 Aug
@ Leicester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Genoa.
Our pick is Lazio or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lazio vs Genoa?
On our numbers Lazio have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Genoa 19%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Genoa?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our predicted score is Lazio 1–0 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio vs Genoa (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
