Value bet: Junior to win @ 3.60 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.70
Deportes Tolima vs Junior preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima host Junior in the Primera A on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 02:15 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Junior sit 14th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Quindio 2–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Junior's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Barranquilla 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Deportes Tolima and 1.1 for Junior. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Junior to win at 3.60 – 33% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Junior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima45%fair 2.23 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Junior33%fair 3.05 · @3.60
2.47Expected goals
1.36Deportes Tolima xG
1.11Junior xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.4 – 1.1 Junior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✓
45%
2.23
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✓
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.70
–
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WDLLLW
22 Jul
vs Quindio
2–1
W
27 May
@ Universitario
0–0
D
24 May
@ Atletico Nacional
1–3
L
19 May
@ Coquimbo Unido
0–3
L
17 May
vs Atletico Nacional
0–1
L
14 May
@ Deportivo Pasto
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Junior – last 6
DLWLWD
23 Jul
vs Barranquilla
2–2
D
8 Jun
@ Atletico Nacional
0–1
L
3 Jun
vs Atletico Nacional
3–0
W
28 May
@ Palmeiras
1–4
L
21 May
vs Sporting Cristal
3–2
W
17 May
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Junior.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Junior 33%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Junior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
Deportes Tolima vs Junior (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
