Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Patriotas to win @ 1.64 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPatriotas to win ✗65% · @1.64
Double chancePatriotas or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.57
Patriotas vs Orsomarso preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B sees Patriotas take on Orsomarso on Thursday 20 August, kicking off at 02:10 (WAT) at Estadio La Independencia. Patriotas are 12th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Orsomarso sit 13th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Patriotas's last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with Real Santander 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Orsomarso's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Union Magdalena 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for Patriotas and 0.6 for Orsomarso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Patriotas to win at 1.64 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Patriotas 1–0 Orsomarso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Patriotas65%fair 1.53 · @1.64
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.60
Orsomarso13%fair 7.45 · @4.80
2.22Expected goals
1.66Patriotas xG
0.57Orsomarso xG
48%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Patriotas 1.7 – 0.6 Orsomarso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Patriotas to win✗
65%
1.53
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Patriotas or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Patriotas / FT Patriotas✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.57
–
Form
Patriotas – last 6
DWLLDD
31 Jul
@ Real Santander
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Internacional Palmira
3–1
W
20 May
@ Llaneros
1–3
L
16 May
vs Millonarios
2–3
L
11 May
@ Depor FC
1–1
D
7 May
vs Chico
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Orsomarso – last 6
DWDDLL
1 Aug
@ Union Magdalena
0–0
D
26 Jul
vs Barranquilla
1–0
W
20 May
@ Fortaleza FC
1–1
D
16 May
vs Independiente Medellin
1–1
D
12 May
@ Leones FC
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Bogota FC
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patriotas and Orsomarso.
What is the prediction for Patriotas vs Orsomarso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Patriotas vs Orsomarso?
On our numbers Patriotas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Orsomarso 13%.
How many goals will there be in Patriotas vs Orsomarso?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patriotas vs Orsomarso?
Our predicted score is Patriotas 1–0 Orsomarso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Patriotas vs Orsomarso?
Patriotas vs Orsomarso (Primera B) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 02:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Independencia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
