Value bet: Alianza Atletico to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Grau to win ✓39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.65
Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Atletico travel to Ambrosio Maco Arroyo in the Primera División on Sunday 13 September (21:15 WAT) to face Atletico Grau. Atletico Grau are 11th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Alianza Atletico sit 7th on 28 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Grau's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Deportivo Garcilaso 2–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alianza Atletico's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat UTC Cajamarca 3–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Alianza Atletico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Atletico Grau and 1.1 for Alianza Atletico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Alianza Atletico to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Grau39%fair 2.54 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Alianza Atletico36%fair 2.76 · @3.10
2.34Expected goals
1.20Atletico Grau xG
1.14Alianza Atletico xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atletico Grau 1.2 – 1.1 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Grau to win✓
39%
2.54
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Grau / FT Atletico Grau✗
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.65
–
Form
Atletico Grau – last 6
LWDWWD
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
2–4
L
1 Sep
vs FBC Melgar
1–0
W
26 Aug
vs Sport Boys
2–2
D
21 Aug
@ FC Cajamarca
3–1
W
14 Aug
vs Comerciantes Unidos
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Juan Pablo II College
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
WWDWDW
4 Sep
vs UTC Cajamarca
3–2
W
30 Aug
@ UCV Moquegua
4–1
W
25 Aug
vs UTC Cajamarca
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Sporting Cristal
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ ADT
1–1
D
6 Aug
vs Cienciano
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Grau and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Atletico Grau have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Atletico 36%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Ambrosio Maco Arroyo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
