Primera División · Peru · Estadio Alejandro VillanuevaAlianza Lima vs Universitario prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.84 · bookmaker 2.15 · Won ✓
Value bet: Universitario to win @ 3.40 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.2 – 1.2 Universitario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Alianza Lima and Universitario on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Alianza Lima have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Universitario have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Alianza Lima, 1.2 for Universitario). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alianza Lima have won 0, Universitario have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.15 is better than our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Universitario to win at 3.40 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alianza Lima to win ✗ | 37% | 2.68 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima ✗ | 21% | 4.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.56 | – |
Form
Alianza Lima – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Juan Pablo II College | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Deportivo Garcilaso | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ FBC Melgar | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | vs UTC Cajamarca | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Sport Boys | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs Alianza Atletico | 3–1 | W |
Universitario – last 6
| 6 Sep | vs Comerciantes Unidos | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ UTC Cajamarca | 4–2 | W |
| 24 Aug | vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ FC Cajamarca | 3–2 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Sporting Cristal | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Aug | @ Cienciano | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 2026 | Universitario v Alianza Lima | 1–0 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More Primera División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Universitario 36%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
Alianza Lima vs Universitario (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.