Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLincoln to win ✗66% · @1.53
Double chanceLincoln or draw ✗88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 6.02
Grimsby vs Lincoln preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Clubs sees Grimsby take on Lincoln on Tuesday 28 July, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Grimsby's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Hartlepool 3–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Lincoln's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Leyton Orient 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lincoln arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Grimsby and 1.8 for Lincoln. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grimsby 12%, draw 22%, Lincoln 66%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Grimsby 0–1 Lincoln. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grimsby12%fair 8.49 · @5.10
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.10
Lincoln66%fair 1.51 · @1.53
2.37Expected goals
0.59Grimsby xG
1.78Lincoln xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–215%
1–110%
0–09%
0–39%
1–29%
From our goals model: Grimsby 0.6 – 1.8 Lincoln expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lincoln to win✗
66%
1.51
1.53
Double chance
Lincoln or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.44
Half-time result
Lincoln ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lincoln / FT Lincoln✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
6.02
–
Form
Grimsby – last 6
WDDLWL
25 Jul
@ Hartlepool
3–0
W
18 Jul
@ Zorya Luhansk
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ Cleethorpes Town
0–0
D
10 May
vs Salford City
1–2
L
21 Apr
@ Cambridge United
2–1
W
14 Apr
@ Chesterfield
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lincoln – last 6
LWLWWW
17 Jul
vs Leyton Orient
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ Boston United
1–0
W
10 Jul
@ Lincoln United
1–2
L
21 Apr
@ Doncaster
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Reading
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs AFC Wimbledon
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grimsby and Lincoln.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Grimsby vs Lincoln?
On our numbers Grimsby have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lincoln 66%.
How many goals will there be in Grimsby vs Lincoln?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grimsby vs Lincoln?
Our predicted score is Grimsby 0–1 Lincoln, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Grimsby vs Lincoln?
Grimsby vs Lincoln (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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