Dumbarton host ST Mirren in the League Cup on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Dumbarton Football Stadium.
Form guide
Dumbarton's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Ayr Utd 0–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
ST Mirren's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Arbroath 4–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
ST Mirren arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.0 for Dumbarton and 2.7 for ST Mirren. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dumbarton 12%, draw 17%, ST Mirren 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Dumbarton 1–2 ST Mirren. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dumbarton12%fair 8.57 · @15.00
Draw17%fair 5.80 · @6.50
ST Mirren71%fair 1.41 · @1.18
3.69Expected goals
1.04Dumbarton xG
2.65ST Mirren xG
59%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–29%
1–38%
0–38%
1–17%
0–17%
From our goals model: Dumbarton 1.0 – 2.7 ST Mirren expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ST Mirren to win✓
71%
1.41
1.18
Double chance
ST Mirren or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.80
Half-time result
ST Mirren ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ST Mirren / FT ST Mirren✓
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.98
–
Form
Dumbarton – last 5
LLWDL
30 Jun
@ Ayr Utd
0–3
L
20 Jun
@ Linlithgow Rose
3–4
L
10 Mar
vs Stranraer
2–0
W
24 Feb
vs Clyde
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ East Kilbride
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
ST Mirren – last 6
WWDDWD
27 Jun
@ Arbroath
4–2
W
25 May
vs Partick
1–0
W
21 May
@ Partick
1–1
D
17 May
vs Dundee Utd
1–1
D
12 May
@ Aberdeen
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Celtic
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dumbarton and ST Mirren.
What is the prediction for Dumbarton vs ST Mirren?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Dumbarton vs ST Mirren?
On our numbers Dumbarton have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 17% and ST Mirren 71%.
How many goals will there be in Dumbarton vs ST Mirren?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dumbarton vs ST Mirren?
Our predicted score is Dumbarton 1–2 ST Mirren, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Dumbarton vs ST Mirren?
Dumbarton vs ST Mirren (League Cup) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Dumbarton Football Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Ross County4
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Airdrie United2
East Kilbride3
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Linlithgow Rose1
Partick6
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