Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.75 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.39
Mirassol vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to face Mirassol in the Copa Do Brasil on Sunday 2 August (22:00 WAT).
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Remo 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Bolívar 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Mirassol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Mirassol 2–1 Gremio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Mirassol and 1.1 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirassol 46%, draw 22%, Gremio 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Gremio to win at 3.75 – 32% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–1 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.25
Gremio32%fair 3.09 · @3.75
2.43Expected goals
1.35Mirassol xG
1.08Gremio xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.4 – 1.1 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mirassol vs Gremio?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gremio 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol vs Gremio (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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