Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Danubio to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDanubio to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceDanubio or draw ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.19
Danubio vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Danubio host Progreso in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 30 May, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Danubio are 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Danubio's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to Deportivo Maldonado 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Progreso's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Atletico Torque 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Danubio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Danubio and 0.8 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Danubio 59%, draw 20%, Progreso 20%.
Safer route: Danubio or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Danubio to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Danubio or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Danubio 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.10
Progreso20%fair 4.94 · @3.80
2.48Expected goals
1.66Danubio xG
0.82Progreso xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.7 – 0.8 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win✗
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Danubio or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio✗
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.19
–
Form
Danubio – last 6
LDWDLW
18 May
@ Deportivo Maldonado
1–3
L
26 Mar
vs Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LLLDDL
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Progreso.
Our pick is Danubio or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Danubio vs Progreso?
On our numbers Danubio have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Progreso 20%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Progreso?
Danubio vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
