Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗58% · @1.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.87
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Racing Montevideo take on Defensor Sporting on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Penarol 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Racing Montevideo and 0.7 for Defensor Sporting. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 58%, draw 21%, Defensor Sporting 21%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Racing Montevideo to win at 1.88 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 1–0 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo58%fair 1.74 · @1.88
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.15
Defensor Sporting21%fair 4.65 · @4.10
2.12Expected goals
1.42Racing Montevideo xG
0.70Defensor Sporting xG
48%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.4 – 0.7 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✗
58%
1.74
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
32%
3.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.87
–
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 6
DWWDWL
22 May
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
17 May
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LLLDWL
24 May
vs Penarol
0–2
L
17 May
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
10 May
vs Juventud
1–2
L
4 May
@ Penarol
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Progreso
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Defensor Sporting 21%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–0 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
