Value bet: Santo André to win @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanto André to win ✗63% · @1.77
Double chanceSanto André or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.44
Santo André vs São Caetano preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Paulista sees Santo André take on São Caetano on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Santo André's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to EC São Bernardo 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
São Caetano's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to São José EC 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
São Caetano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Santo André and 0.9 for São Caetano. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santo André 63%, draw 20%, São Caetano 17%.
Safer route: Santo André or draw (83%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Santo André to win at 1.77 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Santo André 2–0 São Caetano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santo André63%fair 1.59 · @1.77
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.35
São Caetano17%fair 5.77 · @4.33
2.96Expected goals
2.02Santo André xG
0.94São Caetano xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Santo André 2.0 – 0.9 São Caetano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santo André to win✗
63%
1.59
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Santo André or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.22
Half-time result
Santo André ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santo André / FT Santo André✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.44
–
Form
Santo André – last 5
LDLLD
19 Jul
@ EC São Bernardo
1–3
L
1 Mar
@ Linense
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Sertãozinho
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs São José EC
0–3
L
19 Feb
@ Taubaté
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
São Caetano – last 6
LLWWWD
20 Jul
vs São José EC
1–2
L
28 Mar
@ Grêmio Sãocarlense
1–4
L
25 Mar
@ Colorado Caieiras
4–0
W
18 Mar
@ Tanabi
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Comercial
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs ECUS
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santo André and São Caetano.
What is the prediction for Santo André vs São Caetano?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Santo André vs São Caetano?
On our numbers Santo André have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and São Caetano 17%.
How many goals will there be in Santo André vs São Caetano?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santo André vs São Caetano?
Our predicted score is Santo André 2–0 São Caetano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Santo André vs São Caetano?
Santo André vs São Caetano (Copa Paulista) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Juventus3
Paulista1
Linense3
Marília1