Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone prediction & analysis
Equatorial Guinea or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 58% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Equatorial Guinea 2.2 – 1.3 Sierra Leone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Equatorial Guinea hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 20% for Sierra Leone.
Equatorial Guinea have taken 1 points from their last 3 matches (0W 1D 2L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Sierra Leone have 3 points from their last 3 (1W 0D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Sierra Leone come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 for Equatorial Guinea, 1.3 for Sierra Leone). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%).
Our pick is Equatorial Guinea or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Equatorial Guinea to win ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Equatorial Guinea or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Equatorial Guinea ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Equatorial Guinea / FT Equatorial Guinea ✓ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.49 | – |
Form
Equatorial Guinea – last 3
| 24 Sep | @ Congo DR | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Jun | vs Comoros | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Madagascar | 1–1 | D |
Sierra Leone – last 3
| 24 Sep | vs Zimbabwe | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Jun | @ Liberia | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Jun | vs Liberia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Algeria | 6 | +14 | 16 |
| 2 |  Equatorial Guinea | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Togo | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 |  Liberia | 6 | -8 | 4 |
More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions
League hub
Central African Republic0
Burkina Faso1
Zimbabwe1
Congo DR2
Botswana2
Tunisia2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Our pick is Equatorial Guinea or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
On our numbers Equatorial Guinea have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sierra Leone 20%.
How many goals will there be in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.