Value bet: Ethiopia to win @ 2.45 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEthiopia to win ✗46% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.55
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 16.54
Ethiopia vs Malawi preview and prediction
The match
Ethiopia host Malawi in the Friendlies on Tuesday 9 June, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Dire Dawa Stadium.
Form guide
Ethiopia's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Malawi 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished Ethiopia 1–0 Malawi.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.0 for Ethiopia and 0.7 for Malawi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ethiopia 46%, draw 22%, Malawi 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ethiopia to win at 2.45 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ethiopia46%fair 2.15 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Malawi31%fair 3.20 · @2.75
1.64Expected goals
0.95Ethiopia xG
0.68Malawi xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–019%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Ethiopia 1.0 – 0.7 Malawi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Malawi?
On our numbers Ethiopia have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Malawi 31%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Malawi?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Our predicted score is Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Ethiopia vs Malawi (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Dire Dawa Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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