Ethiopia vs Malawi prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ethiopia to win @ 2.45 – our chance 43% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ethiopia 0.9 – 0.7 Malawi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ethiopia hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 33% for Malawi.
Ethiopia have taken 6 points from their last 2 matches (2W 0D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.0 per game.
We expect around 1.6 goals (0.9 for Ethiopia, 0.7 for Malawi). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (20%), 1–0 (18%), 0–1 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is better than our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Ethiopia to win at 2.45 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ethiopia to win ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | 2.45 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.50 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 27% | 3.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.59 | – |
Form
Ethiopia – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Sao Tome and Principe | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Sao Tome and Principe | 3–0 | W |
Malawi
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ethiopia and Malawi.
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What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Malawi?
On our numbers Ethiopia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malawi 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Malawi?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Ethiopia vs Malawi?
Ethiopia vs Malawi (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.