Gibraltar vs Malta prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.09
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Gibraltar 0.5 – 1.1 Malta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Malta travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 27% for Gibraltar.
Gibraltar have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.3 per game. Malta have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 1.6 goals (0.5 for Gibraltar, 1.1 for Malta). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–1 (22%), 0–0 (20%), 0–2 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Gibraltar have won 0, Malta have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 92% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Malta to win | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Malta / FT Malta | 29% | 3.44 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 22% | 4.45 | – |
Form
Gibraltar – last 6
| 5 Oct | @ Liechtenstein | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Oct | @ Malta | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Andorra | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Sep | vs Sao Tome and Principe | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Cayman Islands | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Jun | vs British Virgin Islands | 4–0 | W |
Malta – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Oct | vs Gibraltar | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Liechtenstein | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | @ Andorra | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Jun | @ Azerbaijan | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Jun | @ Slovakia | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 1 Oct 2026 | Malta v Gibraltar | 1–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Malta | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 3 | -2 | 1 |
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SloveniaFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Gibraltar vs Malta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 92% chance.
Who will win Gibraltar vs Malta?
On our numbers Gibraltar have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Malta 62%.
How many goals will there be in Gibraltar vs Malta?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 34% of the time on our projection.
When is Gibraltar vs Malta?
Gibraltar vs Malta (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.