Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Ourense to win ✓46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.91
UD Ourense vs Conquense preview and prediction
The match
Conquense travel to Estadio de O Couto in the Segunda División RFEF Play Offs on Sunday 24 May (16:00 WAT) to face UD Ourense.
Form guide
UD Ourense's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Atlético Astorga 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Conquense's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Xerez 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for UD Ourense and 0.8 for Conquense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Ourense 46%, draw 22%, Conquense 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 – 66% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: UD Ourense 1–0 Conquense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Ourense46%fair 2.18 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Conquense32%fair 3.10 · @2.75
1.80Expected goals
1.03UD Ourense xG
0.78Conquense xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 1.0 – 0.8 Conquense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Ourense to win✓
46%
2.18
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.62 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.91
–
Form
UD Ourense – last 6
DWLWDW
3 May
vs Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ Bergantiños
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Marino de Luanco
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Sámano
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Conquense – last 6
DWWLDW
17 May
vs Xerez
0–0
D
3 May
@ Real Madrid III
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Tenerife II
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Navalcarnero
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Orihuela
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs Colonia Moscardó
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Conquense.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Conquense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Conquense?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Conquense 32%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Conquense?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Conquense?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–0 Conquense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Conquense?
UD Ourense vs Conquense (Segunda División RFEF Play Offs) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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