Defensor Sporting vs Penarol prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Defensor Sporting host Penarol in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Central Espanol 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Penarol's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Corinthians 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Penarol 1–1 Defensor Sporting.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Defensor Sporting and 1.3 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting30%fair 3.35 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Penarol48%fair 2.09 · @2.25
2.27Expected goals
0.95Defensor Sporting xG
1.32Penarol xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.0 – 1.3 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 48%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
