Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓59% · @1.78
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.46
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Racing Montevideo take on Cerro Largo on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Cerro Largo sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Penarol 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Cerro Largo's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Penarol 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Racing Montevideo and 0.7 for Cerro Largo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 59%, draw 24%, Cerro Largo 17%.
Safer route: Racing Montevideo or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 2–0 Cerro Largo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo59%fair 1.71 · @1.78
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.20
Cerro Largo17%fair 5.72 · @4.60
2.34Expected goals
1.60Racing Montevideo xG
0.74Cerro Largo xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.6 – 0.7 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
59%
1.71
1.78
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✓
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.46
–
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo – last 6
LWLDDL
12 May
vs Penarol
2–3
L
3 May
@ Progreso
1–0
W
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro Largo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 2–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
