Poland vs Ukraine prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Poland to win @ 2.05 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Poland 1.2 – 0.6 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Poland hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 21% for Ukraine.
Poland have taken 3 points from their last 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Ukraine have 3 points from their last 2 (1W 0D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 1.8 goals (1.2 for Poland, 0.6 for Ukraine). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (21%), 0–0 (17%), 2–0 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is better than our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Poland to win at 2.05 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Poland to win ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Double chance | Poland or draw ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.77 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Poland / FT Poland ✗ | 31% | 3.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 21% | 4.85 | – |
Form
Poland – last 2
| 31 Mar | @ Sweden | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Mar | vs Albania | 2–1 | W |
Ukraine – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Albania | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Sweden | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poland and Ukraine.
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Serbia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Poland vs Ukraine?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Poland vs Ukraine?
On our numbers Poland have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ukraine 21%.
How many goals will there be in Poland vs Ukraine?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Poland vs Ukraine?
Poland vs Ukraine (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tarczyński Arena Wrocław.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.