Mexico vs Australia prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mexico 1.5 – 0.6 Australia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mexico are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 15% for Australia.
Mexico have taken 8 points from their last 4 matches (2W 2D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.3 per game. Australia have 6 points from their last 2 (2W 0D 0L), averaging 3.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. Australia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.5 for Mexico, 0.6 for Australia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mexico to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.68 |
| Double chance | Mexico or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mexico / FT Mexico ✓ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.54 | – |
Form
Mexico – last 4
| 23 May | vs Ghana | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Apr | vs Belgium | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | vs Portugal | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Feb | vs Iceland | 4–0 | W |
Australia – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Curaçao | 5–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | vs Cameroon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Australia.
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Ukraine2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mexico vs Australia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mexico vs Australia?
On our numbers Mexico have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Australia 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Australia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Mexico vs Australia?
Mexico vs Australia (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Rose Bowl Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.