Japan vs Iceland prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 54% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Japan 2.2 – 0.8 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Japan are clear favourites at home with a 71% chance of winning, against 13% for Iceland.
Japan have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. Iceland have 1 points from their last 2 (0W 1D 1L), averaging 0.5 scored and 2.5 conceded. Japan come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.2 for Japan, 0.8 for Iceland). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.15 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Japan to win ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| Double chance | Japan or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| Half-time result | Japan ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Japan / FT Japan ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.90 | – |
Form
Japan – last 1
| 31 Mar | @ England | 1–0 | W |
Iceland – last 2
| 31 Mar | @ Haiti | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Feb | @ Mexico | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan and Iceland.
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What is the prediction for Japan vs Iceland?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Japan vs Iceland?
On our numbers Japan have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Iceland 13%.
How many goals will there be in Japan vs Iceland?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Japan vs Iceland?
Japan vs Iceland (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 11:25 (West Africa Time) at New National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.