Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIran to win ✓60% · @1.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Iran vs Gambia preview and prediction
The match
Iran host Gambia in the Friendlies on Friday 29 May, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Mardan Sports Complex.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for Iran and 1.2 for Gambia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Iran 60%, draw 19%, Gambia 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Iran 2–1 Gambia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Iran60%fair 1.66 · @1.55
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.65
Gambia21%fair 4.87 · @5.50
3.29Expected goals
2.13Iran xG
1.16Gambia xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Iran 2.1 – 1.2 Gambia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Iran to win✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.28
Half-time result
Iran ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Iran / FT Iran✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Iran – last 2
WL
31 Mar
@ Costa Rica
5–0
W
27 Mar
vs Nigeria
1–2
L
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Gambia – last 1
L
31 Mar
@ Senegal
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iran and Gambia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Iran vs Gambia?
On our numbers Iran have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gambia 21%.
How many goals will there be in Iran vs Gambia?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iran vs Gambia?
Our predicted score is Iran 2–1 Gambia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Iran vs Gambia?
Iran vs Gambia (Friendlies) kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Mardan Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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