Value bet: Lommel United to win @ 2.20 – our chance 48% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLommel United to win ✓48% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Lommel United vs Dender preview and prediction
The match
Dender travel to Soevereinstadion in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 17 May (15:00 WAT) to face Lommel United.
Form guide
Lommel United's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Liège 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Dender's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Cercle Brugge 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lommel United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.6 for Lommel United and 1.2 for Dender. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lommel United 48%, draw 21%, Dender 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Lommel United to win at 2.20 – 48% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lommel United 1–1 Dender. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lommel United48%fair 2.06 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.50
Dender31%fair 3.25 · @3.10
2.79Expected goals
1.59Lommel United xG
1.20Dender xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Lommel United 1.6 – 1.2 Dender expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lommel United to win✓
48%
2.06
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lommel United / FT Lommel United✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.21
–
Form
Lommel United – last 6
WWLWDL
27 Apr
@ Liège
2–1
W
23 Apr
vs Liège
3–0
W
17 Apr
@ Beerschot VA
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Francs Borains
3–1
W
11 Mar
@ KAA Gent II
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs Seraing United
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Dender – last 5
LLWDL
24 Apr
@ Cercle Brugge
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Cercle Brugge
1–4
L
6 Apr
@ RAAL La Louvière
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Cercle Brugge
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs St. Truiden
1–4
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lommel United and Dender.
What is the prediction for Lommel United vs Dender?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lommel United vs Dender?
On our numbers Lommel United have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Dender 31%.
How many goals will there be in Lommel United vs Dender?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lommel United vs Dender?
Our predicted score is Lommel United 1–1 Dender, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lommel United vs Dender?
Lommel United vs Dender (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Soevereinstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
