Value bet: Casarano to win @ 2.75 – our chance 45% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasarano to win ✓45% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Renate vs Casarano preview and prediction
The match
Renate host Casarano in the Serie C Promotion Play Offs on Wednesday 13 May, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Mino Favini.
Form guide
Renate's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Trento 3–3 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Casarano's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Cosenza 5–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Renate and 1.5 for Casarano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Renate 33%, draw 22%, Casarano 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Casarano to win at 2.75 – 45% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Renate 1–1 Casarano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Renate33%fair 3.03 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.10
Casarano45%fair 2.23 · @2.75
2.77Expected goals
1.26Renate xG
1.52Casarano xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Renate 1.3 – 1.5 Casarano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Casarano to win✓
45%
2.23
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Casarano / FT Casarano✓
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Form
Renate – last 6
DWDDWL
19 Apr
@ Trento
3–3
D
13 Apr
vs PRO Vercelli
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Virtus Verona
2–2
D
3 Mar
@ Lecco
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Cittadella
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Casarano – last 6
WWWDLD
6 May
@ Cosenza
5–1
W
6 Apr
vs Potenza
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Catania
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ SS Monopoli
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Siracusa
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Casarano.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Renate vs Casarano?
On our numbers Renate have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Casarano 45%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Casarano?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Renate vs Casarano?
Our predicted score is Renate 1–1 Casarano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Renate vs Casarano?
Renate vs Casarano (Serie C Promotion Play Offs) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lecco1
Pianese1
Ravenna1
Cittadella1
Salernitana1
Casertana1
Potenza3
Campobasso FC1