Value bet: USD Casatese to win @ 1.90 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSD Casatese to win ✓62% · @1.90
Double chanceUSD Casatese or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.23
USD Casatese vs Leon preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone B sees USD Casatese take on Leon on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
USD Casatese's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Leon Monza e Brianza 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leon's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to USD Casatese 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished USD Casatese 1–0 Leon Monza e Brianza.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for USD Casatese and 0.7 for Leon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: USD Casatese 62%, draw 24%, Leon 15%.
Safer route: USD Casatese or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.75.
Value angle: USD Casatese to win at 1.90 – 62% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: USD Casatese 1–0 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USD Casatese62%fair 1.62 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.25
Leon15%fair 6.89 · @3.90
2.35Expected goals
1.68USD Casatese xG
0.67Leon xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.7 – 0.7 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Leon?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leon 15%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Leon?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Leon?
Our predicted score is USD Casatese 1–0 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is USD Casatese vs Leon?
USD Casatese vs Leon (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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