Value bet: Milan II to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultChievo to win39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 10.14
Chievo vs Milan II preview and prediction
The match
Milan II travel to face Chievo in the Serie D Girone B on Sunday 10 May (15:00 WAT). Chievo are 1st with 25 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Milan II sit 3rd on 23 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Chievo's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Pavia 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Milan II's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Vogherese 10–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Chievo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Chievo and 1.3 for Milan II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chievo 39%, draw 24%, Milan II 37%.
Value angle: Milan II to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Chievo 1–1 Milan II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chievo39%fair 2.53 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Milan II37%fair 2.73 · @3.10
2.60Expected goals
1.33Chievo xG
1.27Milan II xG
47%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chievo 1.3 – 1.3 Milan II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chievo to win
39%
2.53
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chievo / FT Chievo
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
10.14
–
Form
Chievo – last 6
WDDWWL
3 May
vs Pavia
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Leon Monza e Brianza
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Castellanzese
2–2
D
2 Apr
vs Vogherese
4–1
W
29 Mar
@ Brusaporto
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Real Calepina
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Milan II – last 6
WWLLDD
3 May
vs Vogherese
10–1
W
26 Apr
@ Castellanzese
3–1
W
19 Apr
vs Varesina
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Real Calepina
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Villa Valle
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Sondrio
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chievo and Milan II.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Chievo vs Milan II?
On our numbers Chievo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Milan II 37%.
How many goals will there be in Chievo vs Milan II?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chievo vs Milan II?
Our predicted score is Chievo 1–1 Milan II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chievo vs Milan II?
Chievo vs Milan II (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castellanzese1
Varesina2
USD Casatese4