Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.61 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.61Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiver Plate to win ✗65% · @1.61
Double chanceRiver Plate or draw ✓91% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.02
River Plate vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees River Plate take on San Lorenzo on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Monumental. River Plate are 7th with 55 points from 32 games (in the top half), while San Lorenzo sit 18th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
River Plate's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Carabobo FC 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Deportivo Cuenca 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
River Plate arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for River Plate and 0.5 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: River Plate 65%, draw 26%, San Lorenzo 9%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was River Plate to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.61, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: River Plate 1–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
River Plate65%fair 1.54 · @1.61
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.50
San Lorenzo9%fair 10.57 · @6.20
2.10Expected goals
1.62River Plate xG
0.47San Lorenzo xG
48%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–016%
0–012%
1–19%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: River Plate 1.6 – 0.5 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
River Plate to win✗
65%
1.54
1.61
Double chance
River Plate or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT River Plate / FT River Plate✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.02
–
Form
River Plate – last 6
WWWWWD
8 May
@ Carabobo FC
2–1
W
1 May
@ RB Bragantino
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Aldosivi
3–1
W
16 Apr
vs Carabobo FC
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Racing Club
2–0
W
9 Apr
@ Blooming
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
DDWDWD
6 May
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–0
D
28 Apr
vs Santos
1–1
D
25 Apr
@ Platense
1–0
W
20 Apr
vs Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between River Plate and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for River Plate vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is River Plate to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.61.
Who will win River Plate vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers River Plate have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 26% and San Lorenzo 9%.
How many goals will there be in River Plate vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for River Plate vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is River Plate 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is River Plate vs San Lorenzo?
River Plate vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independ. Rivadavia1
Argentinos JRS2
Rosario Central
Racing Club