Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndepend. Rivadavia to win ✗44% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.12
Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Independ. Rivadavia take on Union Santa Fe on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini. Independ. Rivadavia are 4th with 57 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Union Santa Fe sit 16th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independ. Rivadavia's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Fluminense 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Santa Fe's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Velez Sarsfield 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Independ. Rivadavia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.1 for Union Santa Fe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independ. Rivadavia 44%, draw 23%, Union Santa Fe 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Union Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independ. Rivadavia44%fair 2.25 · @2.24
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.05
Union Santa Fe32%fair 3.12 · @3.45
2.55Expected goals
1.41Independ. Rivadavia xG
1.14Union Santa Fe xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Independ. Rivadavia 1.4 – 1.1 Union Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independ. Rivadavia to win✗
44%
2.25
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independ. Rivadavia / FT Independ. Rivadavia✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.12
–
Form
Independ. Rivadavia – last 6
DWDWWW
7 May
vs Fluminense
1–1
D
30 Apr
vs Deportivo La Guaira
4–1
W
20 Apr
@ Banfield
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Fluminense
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Bolívar
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Tigre
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Union Santa Fe – last 6
DLWDDW
27 Apr
@ Velez Sarsfield
2–2
D
18 Apr
vs Newells Old Boys
2–3
L
31 Mar
vs Agropecuario
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Independiente
4–4
D
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independ. Rivadavia and Union Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe?
On our numbers Independ. Rivadavia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Union Santa Fe 32%.
How many goals will there be in Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Union Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe?
Independ. Rivadavia vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Argentinos JRS2
Rosario Central
Racing Club
River Plate1