Rosario Central vs Independiente Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 10 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultRosario Central to win40% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.35

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.60

Rosario Central vs Independiente preview and prediction

The match

Rosario Central host Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito. Rosario Central are 2nd with 62 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Independiente sit 13th on 47 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

Rosario Central's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Libertad Asuncion 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Independiente's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Defensa Y Justicia 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.

Rosario Central arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Rosario Central and 1.1 for Independiente. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Rosario Central 40%, draw 26%, Independiente 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Independiente to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Rosario Central 1–1 Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Rosario Central40%fair 2.53 · @2.25

Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.88

Independiente34%fair 2.92 · @3.60

2.36Expected goals

1.24Rosario Central xG

1.13Independiente xG

54%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%

1–012%

0–111%

0–09%

2–18%

1–27%

From our goals model: Rosario Central 1.2 – 1.1 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Rosario Central to win	40%	2.53	2.25
Double chance	Either team to win	74%	1.35	1.35
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	54%	1.86	2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51	1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	60%	1.67	1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.18
Half-time result	Level at half-time	46%	2.20	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Rosario Central / FT Rosario Central	22%	4.51	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	12%	8.60	–

Form

Rosario Central – last 6

WWWWWD

5 May	vs Libertad Asuncion	1–0	W
29 Apr	@ UCV	3–0	W
24 Apr	@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	2–1	W
20 Apr	vs Sarmiento Junin	2–1	W
15 Apr	@ Libertad Asuncion	1–0	W
9 Apr	vs Independiente del Valle	0–0	D

1.5Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Independiente – last 6

WDWLLD

18 Apr	vs Defensa Y Justicia	3–1	W
11 Apr	@ Boca Juniors	1–1	D
27 Mar	vs Atenas	4–2	W
22 Mar	vs Talleres Cordoba	1–2	L
17 Mar	@ Instituto Cordoba	1–2	L
10 Mar	vs Union Santa Fe	4–4	D

2.3Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11

Team

Pts

+12

+13

-3

-8

-5

Central Cordoba de Santiago

-10

Newells Old Boys

-12

Deportivo Riestra

-7

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Rosario Central vs Independiente?

On our numbers Rosario Central have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente 34%.

How many goals will there be in Rosario Central vs Independiente?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Our predicted score is Rosario Central 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Rosario Central vs Independiente?

Rosario Central vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes

Rosario Central