Value bet: AEK Larnaca to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceAEK Larnaca or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.73
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca host Apollon Limassol in the 1. Division on Wednesday 6 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at AEK Arena. AEK Larnaca are 1st with 20 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Apollon Limassol sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
AEK Larnaca's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Omonia Nicosia 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Apollon Limassol's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Apoel Nicosia 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Apollon Limassol 1–1 AEK Larnaca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for AEK Larnaca and 0.7 for Apollon Limassol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: AEK Larnaca to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: AEK Larnaca 1–0 Apollon Limassol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEK Larnaca61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.20
Apollon Limassol12%fair 8.11 · @4.00
2.48Expected goals
1.78AEK Larnaca xG
0.70Apollon Limassol xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 1.8 – 0.7 Apollon Limassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Apollon Limassol 12%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
Our predicted score is AEK Larnaca 1–0 Apollon Limassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol (1. Division) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
