Romania vs Wales prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Wales to win @ 2.64 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Romania 1.0 – 1.2 Wales expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Wales shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Romania.
Romania have taken 1 points from their last 3 matches (0W 1D 2L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Wales have 2 points from their last 2 (0W 2D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Wales come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Romania, 1.2 for Wales). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Wales to win at 2.64 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Wales to win ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | 2.64 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Wales / FT Wales ✗ | 23% | 4.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.42 | – |
Form
Romania – last 3
| 2 Jun | @ Georgia | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Slovakia | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Mar | @ Türkiye | 0–1 | L |
Wales – last 2
| 2 Jun | vs Ghana | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Northern Ireland | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Romania and Wales.
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What is the prediction for Romania vs Wales?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Romania vs Wales?
On our numbers Romania have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Wales 44%.
How many goals will there be in Romania vs Wales?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Romania vs Wales?
Romania vs Wales (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadionul Steaua.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.