Value bet: Botev Plovdiv to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotev Plovdiv to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceBotev Plovdiv or draw ✗87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.46
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv preview and prediction
The match
Botev Plovdiv host Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the First League on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 14:15 (WAT) at Stadion Hristo Botev. Botev Plovdiv are 5th with 23 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Botev Plovdiv's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Dobrudzha 3–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Arda Kardzhali 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Botev Plovdiv arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 April 2026, finished Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Botev Plovdiv and 0.7 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Botev Plovdiv to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botev Plovdiv61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.30
Lokomotiv Plovdiv13%fair 7.53 · @3.85
2.41Expected goals
1.73Botev Plovdiv xG
0.69Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Botev Plovdiv 1.7 – 0.7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Botev Plovdiv have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 13%.
How many goals will there be in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our predicted score is Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
