Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.48
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Defensor Sporting to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win41% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.47
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
Defensor Sporting travel to Estadio Osvaldo Roberto in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 18 April (20:00 WAT) to face Racing Montevideo. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Penarol 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Cerro 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Racing Montevideo and 1.0 for Defensor Sporting. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 41%, draw 25%, Defensor Sporting 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Defensor Sporting to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo41%fair 2.44 · @2.18
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting34%fair 2.98 · @3.35
2.15Expected goals
1.15Racing Montevideo xG
1.00Defensor Sporting xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.1 – 1.0 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win
41%
2.44
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.58
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.23
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.47
–
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LDDWDL
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 34%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
