Value bet: Wanderers to win @ 2.72 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultWanderers to win41% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 9.05
Progreso vs Wanderers preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Progreso take on Wanderers on Saturday 18 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Parque Abraham Paladino. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Wanderers sit 10th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Progreso's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 3–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Wanderers's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Albion FC 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Progreso and 1.3 for Wanderers. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Wanderers to win at 2.72 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Wanderers. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Wanderers41%fair 2.44 · @2.72
2.46Expected goals
1.17Progreso xG
1.30Wanderers xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.2 – 1.3 Wanderers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wanderers to win
41%
2.44
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wanderers / FT Wanderers
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
9.05
–
Form
Progreso – last 3
DDL
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Wanderers – last 5
LLDWL
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Atletico Torque
0–4
L
0.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Wanderers.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Progreso vs Wanderers?
On our numbers Progreso have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wanderers 41%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Wanderers?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Wanderers?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Wanderers, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Wanderers?
Progreso vs Wanderers (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
