Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: ES Zarzis to win @ 3.10 – our chance 41% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultES Zarzis to win ✗41% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.86
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees AS Marsa take on ES Zarzis on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT). AS Marsa are 11th with 6 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while ES Zarzis sit 13th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AS Marsa's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to ES Metlaoui 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
ES Zarzis's last 4: DLDL Most recently they drew with ES Tunis 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for AS Marsa and 1.1 for ES Zarzis. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: AS Marsa 33%, draw 26%, ES Zarzis 41%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.60.
Value angle: ES Zarzis to win at 3.10 – 41% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: AS Marsa 0–1 ES Zarzis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Marsa33%fair 3.01 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
ES Zarzis41%fair 2.43 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
0.92AS Marsa xG
1.07ES Zarzis xG
48%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: AS Marsa 0.9 – 1.1 ES Zarzis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Zarzis to win✗
41%
2.43
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.86
–
Form
AS Marsa – last 4
LWLL
13 Apr
@ ES Metlaoui
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Olympique Béja
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ ES Tunis
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Stade Tunisien
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
ES Zarzis – last 4
DLDL
23 Apr
@ ES Tunis
2–2
D
6 Mar
@ AS Soliman
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs JS Kairouanaise
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ US Monastirienne
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Marsa and ES Zarzis.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis?
On our numbers AS Marsa have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and ES Zarzis 41%.
How many goals will there be in AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis?
Our predicted score is AS Marsa 0–1 ES Zarzis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis?
AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis (Ligue 1) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
JS Kairouanaise0