Serie D · Brazil
Lagarto vs Decisão prediction & analysis
Lagarto to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lagarto 2.1 – 0.9 Decisão expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lagarto are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for Decisão.
Lagarto have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches (1W 3D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 per game. Decisão have 5 points from their last 5 (1W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for Lagarto, 0.9 for Decisão). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Lagarto have won 0, Decisão have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Lagarto to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.95 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lagarto to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | Lagarto or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Lagarto ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lagarto / FT Lagarto ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.92 | – |
Form
Lagarto – last 5
| 30 May | @ Treze | 2–1 | W |
| 24 May | @ Retrô | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | vs Sergipe | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Apr | @ Decisão | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs América SE | 0–3 | L |
Decisão – last 5
| 6 Jun | vs Treze | 1–1 | D |
| 31 May | vs Sergipe | 3–2 | W |
| 24 May | vs Serra Branca | 0–1 | L |
| 17 May | @ Retrô | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Apr | vs Lagarto | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 2026 | Decisão v Lagarto | 1–1 |
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What is the prediction for Lagarto vs Decisão?
Our pick is Lagarto to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Lagarto vs Decisão?
On our numbers Lagarto have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Decisão 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lagarto vs Decisão?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Lagarto vs Decisão?
Lagarto vs Decisão (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.