Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Caxias to win @ 3.10 – our chance 41% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✗41% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.11
Avai vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The sees Avai take on Caxias on Thursday 16 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Avai's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Chapecoense-sc 1–2 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Caxias's last 4: WWLW Most recently they beat Juventude 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Caxias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Avai and 1.3 for Caxias. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Avai 34%, draw 26%, Caxias 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Caxias to win at 3.10 – 41% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Avai 1–1 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avai34%fair 2.95 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @2.95
Caxias41%fair 2.47 · @3.10
2.40Expected goals
1.13Avai xG
1.27Caxias xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Avai 1.1 – 1.3 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✗
41%
2.47
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.11
–
Form
Avai – last 5
LDWLW
8 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Operario-PR
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ CRB
1–0
W
26 Mar
@ Tombense
2–3
L
4 Mar
vs Porto Vitória
3–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 4
WWLW
8 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
26 Feb
vs Guarany de Bagé
0–1
L
16 Feb
@ São Luiz
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avai and Caxias.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Avai vs Caxias?
On our numbers Avai have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Caxias 41%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avai vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is Avai 1–1 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Avai vs Caxias?
Avai vs Caxias () kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
America Mineiro2
Sampaio Corrêa RJ1
Volta Redonda3
Tombense2
Juventude0
Chapecoense-sc0