Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChile to win ✗59% · @1.80
Double chanceChile or draw ✗82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.11
New Zealand vs Chile preview and prediction
The match
Chile travel to Eden Park in the on Monday 30 March (07:15 WAT) to face New Zealand.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.1 for New Zealand and 2.1 for Chile. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Zealand 18%, draw 22%, Chile 59%.
Safer route: Chile or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 52% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.34, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New Zealand 1–2 Chile. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Zealand18%fair 5.51 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.25
Chile59%fair 1.68 · @1.80
3.19Expected goals
1.09New Zealand xG
2.10Chile xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: New Zealand 1.1 – 2.1 Chile expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chile to win✗
59%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Chile or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.20
Half-time result
Chile ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chile / FT Chile✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.11
–
Form
New Zealand – last 1
L
27 Mar
vs Finland
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Chile – last 1
W
27 Mar
vs Cape Verde Islands
4–2
W
4.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Zealand and Chile.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win New Zealand vs Chile?
On our numbers New Zealand have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chile 59%.
How many goals will there be in New Zealand vs Chile?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Zealand vs Chile?
Our predicted score is New Zealand 1–2 Chile, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is New Zealand vs Chile?
New Zealand vs Chile () kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 07:15 (West Africa Time) at Eden Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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