Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGremio to win ✓72% · @1.29
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓94% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.71
Gremio vs Confiança preview and prediction
The match
Confiança travel to Arena do Grêmio in the Copa Do Brasil on Tuesday 21 April (23:30 WAT) to face Gremio.
Form guide
Gremio's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Confiança's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat AO Itabaiana 1–0 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Confiança arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.8 for Gremio and 0.4 for Confiança. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 72%, draw 22%, Confiança 6%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gremio 1–0 Confiança. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio72%fair 1.39 · @1.29
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @4.75
Confiança6%fair 16.18 · @11.50
2.12Expected goals
1.77Gremio xG
0.35Confiança xG
43%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–019%
0–012%
3–011%
1–17%
2–17%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.8 – 0.4 Confiança expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
72%
1.39
1.29
Double chance
Gremio or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.36
Half-time result
Gremio ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.71
–
Form
Gremio – last 6
LWDLDL
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Remo
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Confiança – last 5
WWLWL
9 Apr
@ AO Itabaiana
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Fluminense PI
2–0
W
26 Mar
@ Sousa
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Tombense
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs AO Itabaiana
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Confiança.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Gremio vs Confiança?
On our numbers Gremio have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Confiança 6%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Confiança?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Confiança?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Confiança, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Confiança?
Gremio vs Confiança (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Botafogo1
Chapecoense-sc0
Sao Paulo1
Juventude0