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CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil

Independiente del Valle

WWLWW
4–1
FT

Libertad Asuncion

DWLWL

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion prediction & analysis

78%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓70% · @1.32
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.37

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion preview and prediction

The match

Independiente del Valle host Libertad Asuncion in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 20 May, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Libertad Asuncion sit 4th on 0 points. A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Universidad Catolica 3–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Libertad Asuncion's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with 2 de Mayo 0–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.

Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.

Head to head

The last meeting, on 28 April 2026, finished Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Independiente del Valle and 0.8 for Libertad Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 54%.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Independiente del Valle70%fair 1.43 · @1.32
Draw16%fair 6.20 · @5.20
Libertad Asuncion14%fair 7.07 · @8.40
2.89Expected goals
2.11Independiente del Valle xG
0.78Libertad Asuncion xG
54%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%

From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.8 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓70%1.431.32
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓86%1.161.05
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.851.93
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78%1.281.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.771.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗65%1.541.50
Half-time resultIndependiente del Valle ahead at half-time ✓49%2.04–
Half-time / full-timeHT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle ✓44%2.25–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.37–

Form

Independiente del Valle – last 6

WWLWWW
13 May@ Universidad Catolica3–0W
10 Mayvs Barcelona SC1–0W
6 May@ UCV0–2L
1 May@ Universidad Catolica3–2W
28 Apr@ Libertad Asuncion3–2W
22 Apr@ Delfin SC1–0W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Libertad Asuncion – last 6

DWLWLW
14 Mayvs 2 de Mayo0–0D
11 May@ Sportivo Luqueno3–2W
5 May@ Rosario Central0–1L
2 Mayvs Club Sp. San Lorenzo5–0W
28 Aprvs Independiente del Valle2–3L
26 Aprvs Olimpia3–2W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Apr 2026Libertad Asuncion v Independiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle6411+513
2Rosario Central6411+813
3UCV6303-49
4Libertad Asuncion6006-90

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Always Ready1 Mirassol2 111%5.70X23%4.00267%1.56 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.30 ✓
FT Santa Fe2 Platense1 138%2.10X25%3.05237%3.75 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Boca Juniors1 Cruzeiro1 161%1.92X21%3.30218%4.10 1XBoca Juniors or draw 82%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Libertad Asuncion 14%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.