Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.65 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✗67% · @1.65
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✗86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.68
UCV vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
UCV host Independiente del Valle in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 6 May, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV. UCV are 3rd with 9 points from 6 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 13 points.
Form guide
UCV's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Rosario Central 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Universidad Catolica 3–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 April 2026, finished Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for UCV and 2.1 for Independiente del Valle. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV 14%, draw 19%, Independiente del Valle 67%.
Safer route: Independiente del Valle or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Independiente del Valle to win at 1.65 – 67% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: UCV 0–2 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV14%fair 7.26 · @5.10
Draw19%fair 5.13 · @3.70
Independiente del Valle67%fair 1.50 · @1.65
2.98Expected goals
0.85UCV xG
2.13Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: UCV 0.9 – 2.1 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
67%
1.50
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers UCV have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Independiente del Valle 67%.
How many goals will there be in UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is UCV 0–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
UCV vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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