Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Sfax Railways to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSfax Railways to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.11
EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways preview and prediction
The match
EM Mahdia host Sfax Railways in the Ligue 2 on Sunday 29 March, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). EM Mahdia are 2nd with 17 points from 7 games (in the top four), while Sfax Railways sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
EM Mahdia's last 4: LLDD Most recently they lost to Ajim Djerba 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sfax Railways's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to Jendouba Sport 0–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sfax Railways arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for EM Mahdia and 1.1 for Sfax Railways. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: EM Mahdia 34%, draw 23%, Sfax Railways 44%.
Value angle: Sfax Railways to win at 2.45 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: EM Mahdia 0–1 Sfax Railways. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
EM Mahdia34%fair 2.96 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Sfax Railways44%fair 2.29 · @2.45
2.10Expected goals
0.95EM Mahdia xG
1.15Sfax Railways xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: EM Mahdia 1.0 – 1.1 Sfax Railways expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sfax Railways to win✗
44%
2.29
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sfax Railways / FT Sfax Railways✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
EM Mahdia – last 4
LLDD
23 Mar
@ Ajim Djerba
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ M'saken
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Bouselem
0–0
D
16 Feb
@ BS Bouhajla
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sfax Railways – last 4
LWWW
22 Mar
@ Jendouba Sport
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs CS Hammam-Lif
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Kerkennah
2–1
W
16 Feb
vs Menzel Bourguiba
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between EM Mahdia and Sfax Railways.
What is the prediction for EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways?
On our numbers EM Mahdia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sfax Railways 44%.
How many goals will there be in EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways?
Our predicted score is EM Mahdia 0–1 Sfax Railways, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways?
EM Mahdia vs Sfax Railways (Ligue 2) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ES Hammam-Sousse2
CS Hammam-Lif1