Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Newroz to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewroz to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceNewroz or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.98
Newroz vs Gharraf preview and prediction
The match
Gharraf travel to face Newroz in the Iraqi League on Wednesday 25 March (13:30 WAT). Newroz are 2nd with 26 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Gharraf sit 13th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Newroz's last 4: WWWL Most recently they beat Al-Qasim 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gharraf's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Al Zawra'a 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Newroz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Newroz and 0.7 for Gharraf. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newroz 59%, draw 26%, Gharraf 15%.
Safer route: Newroz or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Newroz to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newroz or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Newroz 1–0 Gharraf. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newroz59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.10
Gharraf15%fair 6.64 · @3.60
2.25Expected goals
1.58Newroz xG
0.66Gharraf xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Newroz 1.6 – 0.7 Gharraf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newroz to win✓
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Newroz or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newroz / FT Newroz✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.98
–
Form
Newroz – last 4
WWWL
19 Mar
vs Al-Qasim
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Baghdad
2–0
W
20 Feb
vs Al Najaf
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gharraf – last 6
LLLLWW
17 Mar
vs Al Zawra'a
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Al-Karma
0–3
L
6 Mar
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–2
L
26 Feb
@ Zakho
0–2
L
20 Feb
vs Duhok
4–3
W
13 Feb
@ Al Minaa Basra
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newroz and Gharraf.
Our pick is Newroz or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Newroz vs Gharraf?
On our numbers Newroz have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gharraf 15%.
How many goals will there be in Newroz vs Gharraf?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newroz vs Gharraf?
Our predicted score is Newroz 1–0 Gharraf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Newroz vs Gharraf?
Newroz vs Gharraf (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al-Qasim0