Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitoria to win ✓68% · @1.18
Double chanceVitoria or draw ✓85% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.35
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Vitoria vs Piauí preview and prediction
The match
Vitoria host Piauí in the Copa Do Nordeste on Thursday 16 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Barradao.
Form guide
Vitoria's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Juazeirense 4–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Piauí's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Fluminense PI 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Vitoria and 0.8 for Piauí. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vitoria 68%, draw 17%, Piauí 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.35.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.35 – 52% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Vitoria 2–0 Piauí. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitoria68%fair 1.46 · @1.18
Draw17%fair 5.90 · @5.40
Piauí15%fair 6.80 · @15.00
2.98Expected goals
2.14Vitoria xG
0.84Piauí xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Vitoria 2.1 – 0.8 Piauí expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria to win✓
68%
1.46
1.18
Double chance
Vitoria or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.35 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Vitoria ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria / FT Vitoria✓
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
Vitoria – last 6
WDLLLD
8 Apr
vs Juazeirense
4–1
W
5 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–3
L
25 Mar
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
19 Mar
@ Gremio
0–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bahia
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Piauí – last 5
LLWLW
8 Apr
@ Fluminense PI
0–2
L
24 Mar
@ ASA
0–1
L
18 Mar
vs Atlético Piauiense
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Betim
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Oeirense
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitoria and Piauí.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Vitoria vs Piauí?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Piauí 15%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Piauí?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Piauí?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 2–0 Piauí, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Piauí?
Vitoria vs Piauí (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Barradao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil · Barradao
Sport Recife5
Maranhão0
America-RN1
Fortaleza EC1