Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMebrat Hayl to win ✓43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.61
Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl preview and prediction
The match
Adama Kenema host Mebrat Hayl in the Premier League on Tuesday 14 April, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Adama Kenema are 10th with 6 points from 5 games (in the bottom half), while Mebrat Hayl sit 8th on 7 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Adama Kenema's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Bahardar 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Mebrat Hayl's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Kedus Giorgis 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mebrat Hayl arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.7 for Adama Kenema and 0.9 for Mebrat Hayl. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Adama Kenema 31%, draw 25%, Mebrat Hayl 43%.
Value angle: Mebrat Hayl to win at 2.55 – 43% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Adama Kenema 1–1 Mebrat Hayl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Adama Kenema31%fair 3.19 · @2.95
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.60
Mebrat Hayl43%fair 2.32 · @2.55
1.65Expected goals
0.72Adama Kenema xG
0.93Mebrat Hayl xG
38%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
0–118%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Adama Kenema 0.7 – 0.9 Mebrat Hayl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mebrat Hayl to win✓
43%
2.32
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
18%
5.61
–
Form
Adama Kenema – last 6
LLLDDW
10 Apr
@ Bahardar
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Negelle Arsi
1–2
L
10 Mar
vs Arba Minch Kenema
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Sheger Ketema
3–3
D
21 Feb
@ Ethiopian Medhin
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mebrat Hayl – last 6
LDWWWL
8 Apr
@ Kedus Giorgis
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Bahardar
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Negelle Arsi
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ethiopia Bunna
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Arba Minch Kenema
4–1
W
27 Feb
vs Hadiya Hosaena
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Adama Kenema and Mebrat Hayl.
What is the prediction for Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
On our numbers Adama Kenema have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mebrat Hayl 43%.
How many goals will there be in Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our predicted score is Adama Kenema 1–1 Mebrat Hayl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Adama Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
