Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortuguesa to win ✗46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02
Portuguesa vs Paysandu preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Brasil sees Portuguesa take on Paysandu on Wednesday 18 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio do Caninde.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Portuguesa RJ 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.8 for Portuguesa and 1.5 for Paysandu. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 – 52% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.34, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Portuguesa 1–1 Paysandu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portuguesa46%fair 2.16 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Paysandu31%fair 3.19 · @3.40
3.30Expected goals
1.83Portuguesa xG
1.47Paysandu xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Portuguesa 1.8 – 1.5 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portuguesa to win✗
46%
2.16
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.44 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
2.35 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portuguesa / FT Portuguesa✗
28%
3.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.02
–
Form
Portuguesa – last 2
WW
27 Feb
vs Altos
5–1
W
16 Feb
@ Mirassol
2–1
W
3.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 3
WWW
12 Mar
vs Portuguesa RJ
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Castanhal
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Tuna Luso
5–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portuguesa and Paysandu.
What is the prediction for Portuguesa vs Paysandu?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Portuguesa vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Portuguesa have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paysandu 31%.
How many goals will there be in Portuguesa vs Paysandu?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portuguesa vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Portuguesa 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Portuguesa vs Paysandu?
Portuguesa vs Paysandu (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Caninde.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Londrina0
Operario-PR1
Sport Recife1
Athletic Club3
Vila Nova0
Confiança0