Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Erbil to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultErbil to win ✓41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.77
Duhok vs Erbil preview and prediction
The match
Erbil travel to Duhok Stadium in the Iraqi League on Wednesday 18 March (21:15 WAT) to face Duhok. Duhok are 8th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Erbil sit 7th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Duhok and 1.2 for Erbil. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Duhok 34%, draw 24%, Erbil 41%.
Value angle: Erbil to win at 2.60 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Duhok 1–1 Erbil. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Duhok34%fair 2.92 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.00
Erbil41%fair 2.43 · @2.60
2.21Expected goals
1.04Duhok xG
1.17Erbil xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Duhok 1.0 – 1.2 Erbil expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win✓
41%
2.43
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.77
–
Form
Duhok – last 2
LD
20 Feb
@ Gharraf
3–4
L
13 Feb
vs Mosul
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Erbil – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Zakho
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Duhok and Erbil.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Duhok vs Erbil?
On our numbers Duhok have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Erbil 41%.
How many goals will there be in Duhok vs Erbil?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Duhok vs Erbil?
Our predicted score is Duhok 1–1 Erbil, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Duhok vs Erbil?
Duhok vs Erbil (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Duhok Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
